List of New Jersey and Illinois’ Most Vulnerable Housing Markets | New

New Jersey, Illinois and Interior California continued to have the highest concentrations of the riskiest housing markets in the second quarter, according to ATTOM’s Special Housing Risk Report. The largest clusters were near New York and Chicago.

Second-quarter models, based on housing affordability gaps, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment, found that New Jersey, Illinois and California had 33 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to potential declines, according to the report. The 50 most at risk included nine in and around New York, six in the Chicago metro area and 13 spread across northern, central and southern California. The rest were scattered across the United States, including three in the Philadelphia metropolitan area.

At the other end of the risk spectrum, the South and Midwest had the highest concentration of markets considered least vulnerable to falling housing markets.

“The Federal Reserve has promised to be as aggressive as necessary to bring inflation under control, even if its actions lead to a recession,” ATTOM Executive Vice President, Market Intelligence Rick Sharga said in a statement. “Given little progress so far in reducing inflation, Fed actions look increasingly likely to push the economy into a recession, and some housing markets will be more vulnerable than others. others if that happens.”

Thirty-one of the 50 counties considered most vulnerable in the second quarter to housing market turmoil were in the Chicago, New York and Philadelphia metropolitan areas, as well as California.

The top 50 counties included two in New York (Kings and Richmond counties, which cover Brooklyn and Staten Island), seven in suburban New York (Bergen, Essex, Ocean, Passaic, Sussex and Union counties in New Jersey and Rockland County in New York) and six in the Chicago metropolitan area (Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry and Will counties in Illinois and Lake County, Ind.). The three in the Philadelphia metropolitan area were Philadelphia County, as well as Camden and Gloucester counties in New Jersey.

California had 13 counties in the top 50 list: Butte County (Chico), Humboldt County (Eureka), Shasta County (Redding), and Solano County (outside Sacramento) in the northern part of the state ; Fresno County, Kings County (outside Fresno), Madera County (outside Fresno), Merced County (outside Modesto), San Joaquin County (Stockton), and Tulare County (outside Fresno) in Central of California, and Kern County (Bakersfield), Riverside County and San Bernardino County in the southern part of the state.

The most at-risk counties continue to have higher levels of unaffordable housing, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment.

At least 7% of residential mortgages were underwater in the second quarter in 23 of the 50 most at risk counties. Nationally, 5.9% of mortgages fall into this category. Those with the highest underwater rates among the 50 most at-risk counties were Rockland County, NY (outside New York) (19.2% of mortgages were underwater); Lake County, Indiana (outside Chicago) (18.9%); Peoria County, Illinois (17.6%); Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania (16.1%) and Saint Clair County, Illinois (outside of Saint Louis) (16.1%).

More than one in 1,000 residential properties faced foreclosure action in the second quarter of 2022 in 40 of the 50 highest-risk counties. Nationally, one in 1,559 homes was in this situation. The highest rates in the top 50 counties were in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) (one in 365 residential properties facing possible foreclosure); Cumberland County, NJ (outside Philadelphia) (one of 373); Warren County, NJ (outside Allentown, Pennsylvania) (one in 455); Camden County, NJ (outside Philadelphia) (one in 462) and Saint Clair County, Ill/ (outside St. Louis) (one in 470).

Half (25) of the 50 counties least vulnerable to housing market problems among the 575 included in the report were in the South, 14 in the Midwest, five in the West and six in the Northeast.

Tennessee had six of the 50 lowest-risk counties, including three in the Nashville metro area (Davidson, Rutherford, and Williamson counties), while Wisconsin had five — Brown County (Green Bay), Dane County ( Madison), Eau Claire County, La Crosse County and Winnebago County (Oshkosh). Four others were in Arkansas: Benton County (Rogers), Craighead County (Jonesboro), Sebastian County (Fort Smith), and Washington County (Fayetteville).

Counties with at least 500,000 residents that were among the 50 least at risk included King County (Seattle, Travis County (Austin), Texas, Salt Lake County (Salt Lake City, Wake County (Raleigh) , North Carolina and Cobb County (Marietta), Ga.

Less vulnerable counties have more affordable homes as well as lower levels of underwater mortgages, foreclosure activity and unemployment.

Less than 5% of residential mortgages were underwater in the second quarter in 30 of the 50 lowest-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates among these counties were Chittenden County (Burlington), Vermont (1.3% of mortgages were underwater), Williamson County, Texas (outside Austin) (1 .4%), Williamson County, Tennessee (outside Nashville) (1.5%). percent); Travis County (Austin), Texas (1.8%) and Wake County (Raleigh), North Carolina (1.9%).

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