FDU poll: New Jersey voters want property tax deduction reinstated

New Jersey Republicans and Democrats can’t agree on much, but they are united in their belief that the $ 10,000 federal cap on state and local taxes should be removed. Almost two-thirds of Garden State voters (63%) say the full property tax deduction should be reinstated – a figure that includes half of voters who say the cap did not raise their taxes.

“It would make sense if this was a partisan issue, as it relates to Trump and the Democratic members of Congress,” said Dan Cassino, professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University and executive director of the survey. “But if there’s one thing that can transcend partisanship, it’s hard cash.”

In 2017, the Republican Congress and President Trump capped the amount of state and local taxes that can be claimed as a deduction from federal taxes at $ 10,000. This means that anyone paying more than $ 10,000 a year in local taxes – a group that primarily includes residents of high-tax states like New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut – would see a tax increase, though this may have been offset by other changes. in tax law. In 2020, the average New Jersey homeowner paid around $ 9,000 in property taxes, although the average taxes in many counties, especially northern Jersey, are over $ 10,000. Democratic members of Congress from New Jersey have said reinstating the cap is a top priority, although progress has so far been limited.

“The SALT cap was widely seen as an attack on Democratic states,” Cassino said. “While this primarily affects residents of the wealthier areas of North Jersey, support for reinstating the deduction is pretty close to universal.”

While there are very few issues in national politics today that unite Democrats and Republicans, New Jersey voters from all political backgrounds want the SALT deduction reinstated. Sixty-three percent of Democrats and 64 percent of Republicans say they want full tax refunds, which is no different than the 60 percent of independent voters who say the same thing. Even the fact that the change was made under former President Trump does nothing to change these views. Half of the respondents were randomly assigned to some form of question that mentioned Trump’s role in the ceiling, but their responses were no different from those who were asked the question without noting Trump.

The bipartisan nature of opinions on the SALT deduction is likely due to the cap’s widespread impact on New Jersey voters. About a third of voters (35%) say the cap raised their taxes, a figure that is no different among Republicans (36%), Democrats (34%) or independents (35%). A smaller number (28%) say it didn’t increase their taxes, and a surprisingly high number of voters (30%) say they don’t know whether it increased their taxes or not. And those numbers don’t include the quarter of voters (26%) who say they haven’t even heard of the SALT cap.

“Despite all the media coverage the SALT cap has received, it doesn’t directly impact everyone,” said Cassino. “Renters, people with mortgages, anyone who doesn’t itemize their deductions, they may not even notice the difference. “

Unsurprisingly, opposition to the SALT deduction cap is concentrated among voters most likely to own a home: older and more educated people. Sixty-five percent of New Jersey voters with a college degree say the cap should be lifted, compared to half (51%) of those who have never attended college. Similarly, 73% of voters aged 65 and over say the full deduction should be reinstated, compared with just 43% of those under 35. This relationship can also be observed directly: 81% of respondents who say the SALT cap has increased their taxes want the deduction reinstated, as well as half of those surveyed (48%) who say their taxes have not increased. .

“There may be good reasons to support the SALT cap, as it is a tax increase that falls primarily on the wealthiest people,” Cassino said. “But there aren’t a lot of people who see their taxes going up and think it’s a good thing.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted between June 9 and June 16, 2021, using a certified list of registered voters in New Jersey. Voters were randomly selected from the list and contacted in two ways. Three-quarters of respondents (608) received an SMS (text) invitation to complete the online survey, via a link provided. The other quarter of the respondents (195) were contacted by telephone, using the same registered voters list. The survey covers 803 registered voters in New Jersey, aged 18 and over, and was conducted entirely in English. The survey was carried out by Braun Research, Inc., of Princeton, New Jersey. Of the interviews, 123 were conducted over landlines, the rest via cell phones.

The data has been weighted to be representative of New Jersey’s registered voter population. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters of gender, age, and race / ethnicity.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS plug-in that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce the final weights. The weights have been cropped to avoid that the individual interviews have too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in the statistical analysis ensures that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are determined by the weights applied to the data, rather than by the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many more respondents would have been needed to obtain the weighted number of respondents in all weighted categories: larger design effects indicate higher levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, we see design effects of around 1.14.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected likely difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sample drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 803 registered voters in New Jersey is +/- 3.46 percentage points, at a 95% confidence interval. Including design effects, the margin of error would be +/- 3.94 percentage points, although the figure not including them is reported much more frequently.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, wording of questions or context effects.

Characteristics of the weighted telephone sample

803 registered voters in New Jersey

Female 52% N = 407

Male 47% N = 364

In another way 1% N = 7

18-24 12% N = 93

25-34 13% N = 101

35-44 13% N = 102

45-64 37% N = 293

65+ 25% N = 199

Democrat (with the leanest) 46% N = 371

Independent 22% N = 172

Republican (with the leanest) 32% N = 260

White 70% N = 560

Black 9% N = 75

Hispanic 8% N = 61

Asian 4% N = 31

Other 10% N = 77

HS or less 12% N = 95

Some colleges 31% N = 246

College diploma or more 56% N = 448

Wording and order of questions

NJ1, NJ2, NJ4-NJ6 released June 21; NJ 10-15 released June 25; NJ3 released on July 8

NJ7. The tax law passed in 2017 limited the amount of property taxes that homeowners can deduct from their federal taxes. Before the change, they could deduct all their property taxes; now they can only deduct $ 10,000. How much have you heard or read on this issue?

  1. Nothing
  2. A little
  3. Some
  4. A lot
  5. [Dk/Ref]

NJ8A. [Excluding those who answered “Nothing” or “Don’t Know/Refused” in NJ7, a total of 253 respondents. Half of the respondents were randomly assigned to this form; the remainder assigned to NJ8B] Restoring the property tax deduction that was cut under President Trump would benefit many people in New Jersey, but those benefits would go primarily to homeowners in the wealthier suburbs. In your opinion, should the property tax deduction be reinstated or not?

  1. Should be restored
  2. Should not be restored
  3. [Dk/Ref]

NJ8B. [Excluding those who answered “Nothing” or “Don’t Know/Refused” in NJ7, a total of 253 respondents. Half of respondents randomly assigned to this form; the remainder assigned to NJ8A] Restoring the property tax deduction would benefit many people in New Jersey, but those benefits would go primarily to homeowners in the wealthier suburbs. In your opinion, should the property tax deduction be reinstated or not?

  1. Should be restored
  2. Should not be restored
  3. [Dk/Ref]

NJ9. To your knowledge, has the property tax deduction limit made you pay more taxes, or not, or are you not sure?

  1. Increased my taxes
  2. Didn’t raise my taxes
  3. Not sure
  4. [Dk/Ref]

Version tables

Party ID

How much have you heard about the SALT deduction limit?

Overall

Start

Indiana

Representative

Nothing at all

26

26

21

26

A little

22

25

21

20

Some

19

20

21

20

A lot

27

24

32

32

I don’t know / Refused (Theft)

5

5

5

3

Party ID

Should we fully restore the property tax deduction?

Overall

Start

Indiana

Representative

Should be restored

63

63

60

64

Should not be restored

24

22

23

27

I don’t know / Refused (Theft)

13

15

17

9

Sex

Education

Should we fully restore the property tax deduction?

Overall

Men

Women

No college

Some College

College +

Should be restored

63

64

63

51

61

65

Should not be restored

24

26

22

29

23

24

I don’t know / Refused (Theft)

13

ten

15

20

15

11

Age

Should we fully restore the property tax deduction?

Overall

18-34

35-64

65+

Should be restored

63

43

65

73

Should not be restored

24

36

26

15

I don’t know / Refused (Theft)

13

21

9

12

Party ID

Has the SALT cap increased your taxes?

Overall

Start

Indiana

Representative

Increased my taxes

35

34

35

36

Didn’t raise my taxes

28

26

28

32

Not sure

30

32

28

25

I don’t know / Refused (Theft)

7

8

9

7

Taxes

Should we fully restore the property tax deduction?

Overall

Increases

Not mounted

Not sure

Should be restored

63

81

48

52

Should not be restored

24

15

40

21

I don’t know / Refused (Theft)

13

4

12

26

Question

Should we fully restore the property tax deduction?

Overall

Asset

No trump

Should be restored

63

61

65

Should not be restored

24

23

26

I don’t know / Refused (Theft)

13

17

9

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